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India’s August retail inflation eases on lower food prices,,on September 14, 2020 at 1:04 pm
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India’s August retail inflation eases on lower food prices,,on September 14, 2020 at 1:04 pm

SAKSHI GUPTA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM “Inflation print came in closer to our expectation for August (HDFC Bank estimate of 6.6%), signaling that price pressures seem to have peaked in July. The August print and our expectation of inflation remaining above 6% even in September means that the space for monetary action in October is almost absent. We expect 25-50 bps rate cut in the December and February meeting contingent on the inflation trajectory.”

“We expect inflation to average above 5% for the year. After today’s slightly positive inflation surprise, bond yields could move marginally lower tomorrow. However, given the borrowing pressures building up, we expect 6% to be the floor for the 10 year in the near term.”

UPASNA BHARDWAJ, SENIOR ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI “While CPI inflation reading continues to remain uncomfortably elevated, it has started to trend lower, providing some relief. However, several uncertainties remain ahead as supply side disruptions continue to dominate the weaker demand side pressures along with one-off idiosyncratic factors weighing on core inflation. Going ahead, as inflation remains elevated in the near term we see limited room for policy easing at least through the December policy.”

MADAN SABNAVIS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CARE RATINGS, MUMBAI “Quite clearly the MPC will keep this number at the back of the mind when evaluating its decision in the next meeting. Inflation is well above the threshold of 6% while growth has slipped quite sharply. The liquidity situation is comfortable while bank credit growth has been negative. Under these conditions the decision may steer towards another pause in policy action.”

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